Holiday spending projections point to possible sales decline

· Retail & E-commerce

New holiday spending projections suggest the 2026 season could see a sales decline, as shoppers expect less for more. Even forecasts that still predict growth acknowledge that consumers remain under pressure. The outlook sets expectations for retailers heading into their most important quarter of the year.

Why it matters：Holiday-quarter expectations drive inventory, promotion and staffing decisions across retail, so a possible spending decline signals a tougher competitive environment.

Key points

  • Some projections suggest holiday spending could drop outright.
  • Forecasts that still see growth note consumers are pressured.
  • The holiday quarter is retail's most important sales period.

Sources (original reporting)

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