India-USEC spot rates fall sharply as AI cargo lifts air freight

· Logistics · India · United States

Spot rates on the India-US East Coast lane have dropped by up to $3,000 per FEU over the past two to three weeks, with carrier sources reporting markedly slower booking activity through the month as carriers chase cargo. On the air side, demand from hyperscalers for AI infrastructure is driving peak-season volumes, particularly on the trans-Pacific, alongside general high-tech products and restocking ahead of November online shopping promotions filling freighters. Airbus's 20-year outlook sees the global freighter fleet growing about 46% by 2045, little changed from last year's forecast, on stable air cargo growth. The two modes are moving in opposite directions as ocean capacity loosens and air demand tightens.

Why it matters：The divergence shows where capacity and pricing power sit in global logistics: ocean carriers on a key India lane are losing leverage to shippers, while AI-related air cargo demand tightens freighter capacity and underpins long-term fleet growth plans.

Key points

  • India-USEC spot rates fell up to $3,000 per FEU in two to three weeks.
  • Hyperscaler AI infrastructure demand is a main driver of trans-Pacific air cargo volumes.
  • Airbus expects the global freighter fleet to grow 46% by 2045.

Sources (original reporting)

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