Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions projected to dip 0.4% in 2026 on Iran conflict

· Climate

Carbon Brief published an analysis projecting that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement will fall by around 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes. The analysis attributes the dip to the Iran conflict hitting oil use, rather than to structural decarbonisation. That would mark a rare annual decline in a series that has otherwise climbed for decades, but the driver is a supply and demand shock in oil markets rather than clean-energy policy. The finding lands as delegates meet at COP31 in Antalya, where the gap between emissions trends and climate targets is a central theme.

Why it matters：A decline driven by conflict rather than policy shows how exposed global emissions trajectories are to geopolitics, and complicates claims that the world has turned a corner on CO2.

Key points

  • Projected 2026 emissions: 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2.
  • The fall is attributed to the Iran conflict reducing oil use.
  • The analysis was published by Carbon Brief.

Sources (original reporting)

More stories from this day