Study finds some regions already near 1.5°C warming thresholds

· Science

Research published in Nature Climate Change reports that regions worldwide may have already experienced roughly 90%–94% of the warming expected when the global average reaches 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, and about 65%–76% of that expected at 2°C. The authors say regional warming in 2025 was statistically indistinguishable from those levels. The finding separates local experience from the global average that climate targets are framed around, indicating that many places are already living with conditions tied to the 1.5°C benchmark even before the global figure reaches it.

Why it matters：Separating regional warming from the global average reframes how adaptation planning and climate targets are set, since impacts are felt locally well before the global benchmark is crossed.

Key points

  • Regions may have seen 90%–94% of the warming expected at 1.5°C globally.
  • At the 2°C global level, regions may have seen 65%–76% of expected warming.
  • Regional warming in 2025 was statistically indistinguishable from those levels.

Sources (original reporting)

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