Tanker fleet growth tests freight rally as VLCC rates soften

· Shipping

A wave of tanker deliveries is set to test whether geopolitical disruption and longer trading routes can keep supporting charter rates and ship values, according to S&P Global Energy CERA's latest fleet outlook. The warning follows an extraordinary freight rally that pushed some secondhand ship values above newbuilding order prices. In the near term, VLCCs have softened through the week as limited enquiry and increasingly competitive Suezmax alternatives tempered owners, according to Affinity Research. Amid the surge, product tanker operator d'Amico International Shipping reported strong third-quarter and nine-month 2026 results. The immediate effect is a market at a potential turning point, where supply growth could erode the rate boom that has boosted earnings and asset values.

Why it matters：Tanker supply growth colliding with geopolitical rate support will determine whether owners' windfall earnings and elevated asset values hold into 2027, shaping orderbook and chartering decisions.

Key points

  • The rally pushed some secondhand ship values above newbuilding order prices.
  • VLCC rates softened on limited enquiry and competition from Suezmax tonnage.
  • d'Amico reported strong Q3 and nine-month 2026 results.

Sources (original reporting)

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