Analysts see slim chance of U.S.-Iran deal after midterm elections

· Oil & Gas · United States · Iran

Energy consultancy FGE NexantECA sees a low probability of a U.S.-Iran deal, warning that the next two months carry the greatest escalation risks that could derail the recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Not only are we not close to a resolution, we are even worse than we were," the consultancy said after the U.S. midterm elections. The vote saw President Donald Trump's Republican Party lose both chambers of Congress. Trump had spent the final weeks of the campaign predicting the war with Iran would end "right after the election," and his vice president blamed the conflict for the rout. The assessment contrasts with the peace optimism that drove crude prices sharply lower this week.

Why it matters：The gap between trader optimism and analyst caution over the Iran conflict signals continued volatility risk for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global crude supply.

Key points

  • FGE NexantECA says chances of a U.S.-Iran deal are low
  • It warns the next two months carry the greatest escalation risks
  • Republicans lost both chambers of Congress in the midterms

Sources (original reporting)

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