TotalEnergies moves oil demand peak to 2035-2040 range

· Oil & Gas · France

TotalEnergies has moved its forecast for peak oil demand forward to between 2035 and 2040, a year after projecting that demand would keep rising until 2040. The company's annual energy outlook, released on Monday, projects demand for petroleum products plateauing through the period, and says the Iran war could accelerate the energy transition. The revision shifts the French major's long-term view of when consumption stops growing, a key input for investment planning across the upstream and refining sectors.

Why it matters：When a major integrated oil company pulls its own demand-peak forecast forward, it signals to the wider industry that long-cycle upstream and refining investment cases may need rethinking.

Key points

  • The outlook was released on Monday as TotalEnergies' annual energy forecast.
  • The company says the Iran war could accelerate the energy transition.

Sources (original reporting)

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