UBS Lifts Brent Forecast to $110 as Gulf Flows Stay Below Prewar

· Oil & Gas · United States · Russia

UBS raised its Brent crude forecast for the second time this month, now expecting $110 a barrel by the end of 2026, up from $100, and lifted its 2027 curve by $5 at each point to $95 for March, $90 for June and $85 for September. The bank cited elevated uncertainty and Gulf flows that remain below prewar levels. UBS data also show Russian oil exports only about 10% below prewar levels, even as Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz tighten the market. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels in the week ending October 23 to 410.6 million barrels, according to EIA data, supporting prices.

Why it matters：Higher bank forecasts and falling U.S. inventories signal that supply disruptions are expected to keep crude prices elevated, affecting refiners, shippers and consumers worldwide.

Key points

  • UBS raised its 2027 Brent points by $5 each, to $95, $90 and $85.
  • Russian exports are only about 10% below prewar levels despite refinery strikes.
  • U.S. crude stockpiles fell to 410.6 million barrels.

Sources (original reporting)

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