US LTL carriers see tonnage turn positive but warn recovery needs demand inflection

· Logistics · United States

Old Dominion reported positive tonnage growth in September for the first time in more than two years, a sign the US less-than-truckload market may be bottoming out. Executives cautioned that returning to upcycle-level performance likely requires a wider recovery in demand, which they tied to easing energy costs. The second-largest US LTL provider by revenue also said shipments are getting heavier as freight demand slowly rises, with more positive indicators early in the fourth quarter after sequential tonnage gains through September. Werner, meanwhile, said on its third-quarter earnings call that a tighter truckload market could push contract rates higher in 2027, with early bidding possibly requiring average double-digit increases, though it cautioned it was too early to forecast the full year. Together the signals suggest freight demand is stabilizing without a sharp rebound yet.

Why it matters：LTL and truckload pricing signals matter because they set transport costs for shippers and indicate whether the freight recession is ending, with capacity and rate decisions over the next two years hinging on a demand recovery.

Key points

  • Old Dominion posted its first positive tonnage growth in more than two years in September.
  • Executives linked a stronger recovery to easing energy costs.
  • Werner sees possible double-digit contract rate increases in 2027 amid a tighter truckload market.

Sources (original reporting)

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