Cirium Forecasts Global Airliner Fleet to Nearly Double by 2045

· Aviation

Aviation data platform Cirium released its annual global fleet forecast on October 20, 2026, projecting that the world's airliner fleet will nearly double by 2045 while aircraft supply stays constrained. The forecast points to sustained long-term demand for new aircraft as airlines expand and replace aging fleets, but warns that manufacturers' output and supply-chain limits will shape how fast that demand can be met. Such forecasts are closely watched by airlines, lessors, manufacturers and financiers because they frame planning for orders, financing and capacity. The tension between rising long-term demand and constrained supply suggests delivery slots and used aircraft will remain valuable, and that the balance of power may stay with manufacturers and lessors in the years ahead.

Why it matters：The forecast frames the industry's long-term capacity outlook: demand growth is expected to outrun supply, which keeps pressure on manufacturers and lessors and shapes airline fleet plans for decades.

Key points

  • Cirium published the forecast on October 20, 2026.
  • The global airliner fleet is projected to nearly double by 2045.
  • Aircraft supply is expected to remain constrained.

Sources (original reporting)

More stories from this day