NRF forecasts 4.2% holiday sales growth as seasonal hiring shrinks

· Retail & E-commerce · United States

The National Retail Federation forecasts 4.2% growth in holiday sales, with spending potentially topping $1 trillion as consumers contend with higher prices, Retail Dive reported. The outlook comes alongside muted seasonal hiring: Dick's Sporting Goods has reduced its holiday hiring, echoing a national pattern of retailers pulling back on recruiting workers for the peak season. Separately, Deloitte's annual holiday shopping survey shows shoppers starting earlier. Twenty-two percent of respondents plan to begin holiday shopping earlier than last year, and 28% of shoppers' budgets are expected to be spent by the end of October, the highest level in six years. Retailers and their supply chain partners are weighing how the earlier pull-forward of spending shapes inventory, staffing and promotions through the fourth quarter.

Why it matters：The combination of record holiday spending and leaner hiring shows retailers are betting on demand while keeping peak-season labor costs down, a pattern that will shape staffing, inventory and margin planning across the sector.

Key points

  • NRF sees holiday sales rising 4.2%, with spending possibly exceeding $1 trillion.
  • 28% of shoppers' holiday budgets may be spent by end of October, the highest in six years.
  • Dick's Sporting Goods cut seasonal hiring, mirroring a broader retail pullback.

Sources (original reporting)

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