Thwaites Glacier melt could raise seas twice as much as projected

· Science · United States

A new ice sheet model developed by glaciologists at the University of California, Irvine and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory projects that melting of the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica will contribute up to 30 millimeters (1.2 inches) of sea level rise by 2100. That is roughly twice previous estimates, and the projection holds even without additional climate warming beyond what is already locked in. Thwaites is one of the widest and fastest-changing glaciers in Antarctica and has long been a focus of concern because its collapse could destabilize neighboring ice. The revised figure matters for coastal planning, flood defense and climate adaptation budgets, and it raises the stakes for how quickly ice-sheet models are improving.

Why it matters：A doubling of projected sea-level contribution from one glacier changes the risk calculus for coastal cities and infrastructure worldwide, and it shows how quickly ice-sheet modeling is revising long-standing estimates.

Key points

  • Projected contribution is up to 30 mm of sea level rise by 2100.
  • The estimate is about twice previous projections.
  • It holds even without additional climate warming.

Sources (original reporting)

More stories from this day