Oil Prices Plunge as Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Before Midterms

· Oil & Gas · United States · Iran

President Trump said in a Truth Social post Thursday that the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" in November, prompting oil prices to drop on the statement even though crude remained up on the day. The remark eased immediate fears of a military escalation that could disrupt Middle Eastern supply, which had been supporting prices. Trump also made other claims in the post, according to the report. The move reverses part of the risk premium that had built up in crude markets, and traders are now recalibrating how much geopolitical uncertainty to price into the months ahead.

Why it matters：The U.S. president's explicit signal against near-term military action resets the geopolitical risk premium in oil, affecting hedging strategies for producers, refiners and traders who had priced in potential supply disruption.

Key points

  • Trump posted the statement on Truth Social Thursday afternoon.
  • Oil dropped on the news but was still up on the day.
  • The comment eased fears of Middle East supply disruption.

Sources (original reporting)

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